Alex's Outlook

Tuesday, January 28, 2003

On Bush's State of the Union:


President Bush's State of the Union address was stellar, even though the Republicans' standing ovations after every frickin' line got on my nerves. Bush pitched his outstanding stimulus package, made up mostly of accelerating the 2001 tax cut and eliminating the dividend tax. He made the case for Medicare reform, which entailed caps on huge tort verdicts and giving more choices to employees (presumably via Medical Savings Accounts, which would cost more but give greater accessibility). He even mentioned Social Security reform, which has no chance of passing a 51-49 Senate. Also mentioned was Bush's proposed ban on partial-birth abortion, which likely will pass, as will a ban on all forms of human cloning; finally, he demanded fiscal discipline of lawmakers, tying his tax cuts to bolstered economic growth and thus higher revenues and long-term budget balancing.

Bush spent an inordinate time on a few microscopic government programs. One program, however - AIDS aid to Africa - is not so microscopic, costing an average of $3 billion for 5 years straight. It's ridiculous to say that we can effectively aid a continent literally ripped apart by tribal warfare, warlordism and anarchy every day; how can the US possibly manage AIDS aid to Africa when they can't manage food distribution in Zambia or Somalia? What happens when a warlord confiscates and hoards anti-AIDS drugs just like Mohammed Farah Aidid did with UN grain in Somalia in 1993? Are we going to send in elite US Rangers to take care of that (and presumably not screw up)?
At best, the AIDS initiative is a humanitarian bone thrown to the Democrats. It's stupid policy and probably stupid politics regardless of how you look at it.


The main subject of Bush's speech, however, was the war on terrorism and how it pertains to Iraq. I would summarize it, but Bush probably said it best. Here is the text of the Iraq section:


Twelve years ago, Saddam Hussein faced the prospect of being the last casualty in a war he had started and lost. To spare himself, he agreed to disarm of all weapons of mass destruction.



For the next 12 years, he systematically violated that agreement. He pursued chemical, biological and nuclear weapons even while inspectors were in his country.



Nothing to date has restrained him from his pursuit of these weapons: not economic sanctions, not isolation from the civilized world, not even cruise missile strikes on his military facilities.



Almost three months ago, the United Nations Security Council gave Saddam Hussein his final chance to disarm. He has shown instead utter contempt for the United Nations and for the opinion of the world.



The 108 U.N. inspectors were sent to conduct--were not sent to conduct a scavenger hunt for hidden materials across a country the size of California. The job of the inspectors is to verify that Iraq's regime is disarming.



It is up to Iraq to show exactly where it is hiding its banned weapons, lay those weapons out for the world to see and destroy them as directed. Nothing like this has happened. The United Nations concluded in 1999 that Saddam Hussein had biological weapons materials sufficient to produce over 25,000 liters of anthrax; enough doses to kill several million people. He hasn't accounted for that material. He has given no evidence that he has destroyed it.




The United Nations concluded that Saddam Hussein had materials sufficient to produce more than 38,000 liters of botulinum toxin; enough to subject millions of people to death by respiratory failure. He hasn't accounted for that material. He's given no evidence that he has destroyed it.



Our intelligence officials estimate that Saddam Hussein had the materials to produce as much as 500 tons of sarin, mustard and VX nerve agent. In such quantities, these chemical agents could also kill untold thousands. He's not accounted for these materials. He has given no evidence that he has destroyed them. U.S. intelligence indicates that Saddam Hussein had upwards of 30,000 munitions capable of delivering chemical agents. Inspectors recently turned up 16 of them, despite Iraq's recent declaration denying their existence. Saddam Hussein has not accounted for the remaining 29,984 of these prohibited munitions. He has given no evidence that he has destroyed them.



From three Iraqi defectors we know that Iraq, in the late 1990s, had several mobile biological weapons labs. These are designed to produce germ warfare agents and can be moved from place to a place to evade inspectors. Saddam Hussein has not disclosed these facilities. He has given no evidence that he has destroyed them.



The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed in the 1990s that Saddam Hussein had an advanced nuclear weapons development program, had a design for a nuclear weapon and was working on five different methods of enriching uranium for a bomb.



The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.



Our intelligence sources tell us that he has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes suitable for nuclear weapons production.



Saddam Hussein has not credibly explained these activities. He clearly has much to hide.



The dictator of Iraq is not disarming. To the contrary, he is deceiving.



From intelligence sources, we know, for instance, that thousands of Iraqi security personnel are at work hiding documents and materials from the U.N. inspectors, sanitizing inspection sites and monitoring the inspectors themselves.



Iraqi officials accompany the inspectors in order to intimidate witnesses. Iraq is blocking U-2 surveillance flights requested by the United Nations.



Iraqi intelligence officers are posing as the scientists inspectors are supposed to interview. Real scientists have been coached by Iraqi officials on what to say.



Intelligence sources indicate that Saddam Hussein has ordered that scientists who cooperate with U.N. inspectors in disarming Iraq will be killed, along with their families.



Year after year, Saddam Hussein has gone to elaborate lengths, spent enormous sums, taken great risks to build and keep weapons of mass destruction. But why? The only possible explanation, the only possible use he could have for those weapons, is to dominate, intimidate or attack.




With nuclear arms or a full arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, Saddam Hussein could resume his ambitions of conquest in the Middle East and create deadly havoc in that region.



And this Congress and the American people must recognize another threat. Evidence from intelligence sources, secret communications and statements by people now in custody reveal that Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of Al Qaida. Secretly, and without fingerprints, he could provide one of his hidden weapons to terrorists, or help them develop their own.



Before September the 11th, many in the world believed that Saddam Hussein could be contained. But chemical agents, lethal viruses and shadowy terrorist networks are not easily contained.



Imagine those 19 hijackers with other weapons and other plans, this time armed by Saddam Hussein. It would take one vial, one canister, one crate slipped into this country to bring a day of horror like none we have ever known.



We will do everything in our power to make sure that that day never comes.



(APPLAUSE) Some have said we must not act until the threat is imminent. Since when have terrorists and tyrants announced their intentions, politely putting us on notice before they strike?



If this threat is permitted to fully and suddenly emerge, all actions, all words and all recriminations would come too late. Trusting in the sanity and restraint of Saddam Hussein is not a strategy, and it is not an option.



(APPLAUSE) The dictator who is assembling the world's most dangerous weapons has already used them on whole villages, leaving thousands of his own citizens dead, blind or disfigured.




Iraqi refugees tell us how forced confessions are obtained: by torturing children while their parents are made to watch. International human rights groups have catalogued other methods used in the torture chambers of Iraq: electric shock, burning with hot irons, dripping acid on the skin, mutilation with electric drills, cutting out tongues, and rape.



If this is not evil, then evil has no meaning.



(APPLAUSE)

And tonight I have a message for the brave and oppressed people of Iraq: Your enemy is not surrounding your country, your enemy is ruling your country.



(APPLAUSE)

And the day he and his regime are removed from power will be the day of your liberation. (APPLAUSE)



The world has waited 12 years for Iraq to disarm. America will not accept a serious and mounting threat to our country and our friends and our allies.




The United States will ask the U.N. Security Council to convene on February the 5th to consider the facts of Iraq's ongoing defiance of the world. Secretary of State Powell will present information and intelligence about Iraqi's--Iraq's illegal weapons programs, its attempts to hide those weapons from inspectors and its links to terrorist groups.



We will consult, but let there be no misunderstanding: If Saddam Hussein does not fully disarm for the safety of our people, and for the peace of the world, we will lead a coalition to disarm him.




Earlier in the speech, however, Bush probably made his most significant statement regarding Iraq: "All free nations have a stake in preventing sudden and catastrophic attacks, and we're asking them to join us, and many are doing so. Yet the course of this nation does not depend on the decisions of others. " That sounded to me like a loud-and-clear message to the pro-Saddam crowd (France, Germany et al) to the effect of "You can come along for the ride, but we are going in no matter what," and that Two-Gun Tex isn't going to put up with the inspections farce for any longer. (Did I just call Bush Two-...? *ducks*) Bush also said that Colin Powell would present more evidence to the Security Council regarding Iraq's connection to international terrorist organizations; this information will be much anticipated by those still in the antiwar camp.


The entire transcript of Bush's State of the Union address can be found here.



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