Alex's Outlook

Monday, February 24, 2003

The US, UK and Spain have introduced a resolution that declares Saddam in material breach. Along with these three, Chile and Bulgaria will vote with the US; Pakistani support is almost certain. For a clear majority the US needs two of the following four countries: Angola, Guinea, Mexico, and Cameroon.

I think Russia and China will abstain. Nine votes are needed for a war resolution, and Mexico will probably go with France and Germany. That leaves 6-3 with three undecideds.

Oh well. Bush isn't about to extract 200,00 troops because of the French. Rumor has spread through the Kurdish villages that war will start on March 10, which makes sense. Bush has the guns he needs, and frankly it doesn't matter whether the UN votes itself into irrelevance or not as far as Bush and Saddam are concerned. The best thing about Powell's taking the case to the UN is that it's exposing how pathetic the UN (and particularly Chirac) are. (Is seventeen violated resolutions not enough, Monsieur le President?)


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