Alex's Outlook

Friday, March 07, 2003

Bob Graham has announced that he will not run for Senate re-election in Florida. This makes two rather easy Republican pickups (the other one is Zell Miller's seat in Georgia, since he won't be running for re-election either).

That makes for ten vulnerable Democratic Senate seats, in the following order:

Zell Miller - Georgia

Bob Graham - Florida

Chuck Schumer - New York(assuming Rudy runs against him)

Barbara Boxer - California

Blanche Lincoln - Arkansas

Patty Murray - Washington

John Edwards - North Carolina

Harry Reid - Nevada

Question marks are Byron Dorgan (North Dakota), Fritz Hollings (South Carolina), Russell Feingold (Wisconsin) and Tom Daschle (South Dakota).

Either way, the Democrats' Senate prospects aren't encouraging. If Fritz Hollings decides to retire (he's 82), South Carolina will be a Republican shoo-in. The only major downside is Lisa Murkowski, who was nepotistically given her father's Senate seat after her father won the Alaska governorship. Frank Murkowski was also much more conservative than his daughter is. The GOP will probably be better off eliminating her in the 04 primary, but whoever emerges from that mess will have to fight the Democrats' super-candidate, former governor Tony Knowles. Basically, Murkowski's seat is a goner.

The only vulnerable Republicans are Jim Bunning of Kentucky and Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois.


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