Alex's Outlook

Wednesday, April 16, 2003

I am getting really bored with comparisons between GWB and his father. Even if the economy is still in the doldrums in Nov. 2004, there is no way that Bush can lose. Bush's father lost for several reasons:

1. He sold out his base. Bush Sr. signed a major tax hike to buy Democrats' support for Gulf War I, and rejected the pleas of his base in nominating unknown David Souter to the Supreme Court (Souter is now a reliable liberal vote)

2. He signed several huge regulatory bills, notably the Clean Air Act and the Americans with Disabilities Act.

3. He completely repudiated supply-side economics ("voodoo economics" - tax cuts lead to more economic growth) in rhetoric as well as policy.

4. He was a horrible campaigner.

5. Ross Perot siphoned off discontent fiscal conservatives, mostly Republicans. Any third-party candidate in 04 will be a far-left candidate like Sharpton who will chip away at the Democratic base.

6. With all his political blunders, Bush senior lost by a mere five percent, 38-43.

On the contrary, Bush Jr. has slashed taxes and rolled back Clinton-era environmental regulations. Republican activists were intially fuming about McCain-Feingold, but the Democrats' dependence on a few limousine liberals' large contributions means that McCain-Feingold will hurt them pretty badly in 2004. Bush is a terrific campaigner, and he treats his base with respect, not the disdain evident in his father's policies. Bush's successes in the War on Terror so far have meant a lot more to Americans than Bush senior's success in Kuwait, which was an impressive military operation but which had little bearing on ordinary Americans' lives.

Bush's base is supremely loyal to him. The Democrats promise a lackluster campaign in 2004, unless Edwards wins. The United States will become almost a de facto one-party state after 2004, with a 55-45ish Senate and 240-195ish House.

It's going to be a great ten years.


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