Alex's Outlook

Thursday, June 19, 2003

It's official: Redistricting is back in Texas.

Governor Perry (R-TX) has called a special session to reconsider about 233 bills killed in the Ardmore walkout, including Tom DeLay's gerrymander of Texas House districts. Four to seven Texas Democrats will be out of a job after next November. It doesn't matter that much anyway, because the Democrats were going to lose seats next November no matter what happened. Now they're going to lose a few more. The union-friendly GOP moderates will lose even more clout, and DeLay might be able to enact some union regulations - and more tax cuts - after next November. Dare I pray for some fiscal discipline too?

The House won't matter much unless the Senate gets more conservative, however. It looks like South Carolina and Georgia will be shoo-in Republican wins, although Georgia doesn't matter because Zell Miller votes with the GOP on everything anyway.

Vulnerable Republican seats:



Vulnerable Democratic seats:

South Carolina


North Carolina


South Dakota

Florida is seen as a probable GOP pickup, but that assumes that Graham isn't running for it. Graham's nomination has gone nowhere fast, and I bet he'll bail out after getting creamed in the early primaries and run for re-election again. In that case, Florida will remain in Democratic hands. Barbara Boxer of California might be vulnerable, and John Breaux's seat in Louisiana could very well go Republican if he decides to retire. If the Republicans can net four more seats (counting Miller's), they will be able to legislate pretty much whatever they want.


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