Alex's Outlook

Saturday, July 19, 2003

Trouble for the Dear Leader?

Veteran pollster John Zogby says that Bush's job approval rating has slipped to 53 percent, his lowest ever. Forty-six percent of Americans disapprove of his job performance, and on virtually every issue a substantial majority of Americans disapprove of his policies - INCLUDING health care. $12 trillion thrown away on free drugs isn't winning Dub-yah too many extra votes.

However, Bush-lovers need not be dismayed. Zogby predicted the 2000 election very well, but did very poorly in 2002 - he was wrong in most of the important Senate races. He has a way of pushing interviewees into saying whether they definitively dis/approve, which is why his "decided" numbers are very high - in the upper 90's. As 2002 showed, that can really distort the meaning of the data. Most other organizations have shown Bush in the 57-61 range, which is very solid.

Perhaps most interestingly, two-thirds of Americans in Zogby's poll won't care if WMD are never found, and 9% said that they would approve of Bush more if WMD are never found. (Huh?)

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