Alex's Outlook

Wednesday, September 17, 2003

According to the political futures market, Arnold still has the best chance of anyone at winning the governorship of CA. His current chance of 35%, however, is a far cry from the 62% chance he once had.

However, the latest Novak column has Arnold making a comeback. Furthermore, the liberal LA Times' poll, which absurdly showed the recall with 50 percent support (45 pct against) appears to be bogus.

Novak's point was that Arnold's resurgent momentum, thanks to an impressive performance at the CA Republican state convention, will be blunted now that the liberal 9th Circuit has pushed the recall back to March. I think the more important point is that Arnold has regained momentum in the race; the 9th Circuit's ruling was an unusually stupid ruling by an unusually liberal court, and if the court fails to overturn it itself (it's "reconsidering" the ruling), the situation will beg Supreme Court intervention. As much as the Supremes were tarnished by 2000, I don't think anyone is fooled by the judges' maneuvering.

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