Alex's Outlook

Saturday, October 25, 2003

Howard Dean has soared to a 23-point lead (40-17) over his nearest rival, John Kerry, in the New Hampshire primary.

Dean looks more unstoppable every day, which is good. I see Dean as having very negative coattails in the conservative South, where there are 4-5 competitive Senate races right now. Even if Dean somehow carried everything Gore carried, as well as Ohio or West VA, he will damage Democratic Congressional prospects even more than the current situation already has. If the Republicans sweep the competitive Southern races (GA, FL, SC, NC, maybe AR), they will net at least 3 Senate seats, so they will be able to do pretty much whatever they want as far as the budget is concerned.

Dean's juggernaut status among Democrats only further guarantees that the Republicans will build an enduring majority in 2004.

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