Alex's Outlook

Friday, October 31, 2003

Prediction of the Week

I predict that George W. Bush will carry at least 40 states in 2004, with at least 55 percent of the popular vote. His coattails will result in a ~55-45 Senate and a ~237-198 House of Representatives. The War on Terror is going reasonably well, and the economy is growing at a blistering 7.2% rate. All of the viable Democratic campaigns, with the possible exception of John Edwards', are extremely left of center, at a time when Bush's tax cuts are finally getting credit for spurring economic growth. (I do not consider Wesley Clark's campaign to be viable. He has become the new Bob Graham - the guy with the great resume who self-destructs with loony criticism of Bush and the lack of a coherent domestic or foreign policy.)

Due to the severe polarization of certain states, I do not think Bush will win Rhode Island, Vermont, Massachussetts, New York, Maryland or Hawaii. California would normally be a lost cause, but if Schwarzenegger solves the budget crisis he could turn the state around.

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