Alex's Outlook

Thursday, December 25, 2003

Hee Hee

One of my secret agents has found Howie Dean's Christmas list:

1. Bad U.S. economy.
2. Dead U.S. Soldiers.
3. Vermont is the size of Texas.
4. Jimmy Carter is King of the World.
5. A cool accent.
6. Popularity
7. Socialism
8. Communism
9. I could make up my mind on issues.
10. No wealthy people (except for me and the other democrats).
11. Tea with Kim Jong Il.
12. Tea with the Ayatollah.
13. France takes over America.
14. France takes over the world.
15. Al Gore would stop touching me

This Christmas has to be Dean's (and the Democrats') worst in decades. Libya's unilateral disarmament in the face of Saddam's capture proved a major vindication for the "neocon" foreign policy, just when Iraq was turning from a minor to a major liability for Bush. The economy is sizzling, and the Dow hovers around 10300. Dean has nothing to run on.

At this point Dean could have signed up with the War on Terror and rejected his neomarxist economics of "re-regulating the economy" and ratcheting taxes up for everybody. Then he would have lost respectably. Apparently he would rather lose spectacularly, and a lot of Democrats seem to have the same Dean-or-death attitude.

Hypothetical polls 10 months before an election and a month before the first primary are generally worthless, but it seems that with every bounce Bush gets with the general public, Dean gets an equal bounce with likely Democrat primary voters, as shown below (Dec. 17). The Iowa caucuses are barely a month away. If Dean wins Iowa and sweeps New Hampshire eight days later, he will have eliminated Kerry and Gephardt, leaving the woefully inept Wesley Clark as The Anti-Dean by default; but that will be more than outweighed by Dean's momentum from the early victories. Dean is the runaway favorite for the Democrat nomination.

Dean already seems to be looking into the future, towards the general election. Howard Dean (laughably) intends to embrace Jesus on the campaign trail to gain appeal among Southern voters. The move is typically arrogant and conceited; does Dean really think Southerners will take him as one of their own if he gives Jesus a prominent place in his campaign? (For that matter, would Southerners care what Dean's religion was so long as he continued to be a pro-gay, anti-gun, pro-choice Northeasterner?) With Dean's "Saddam's capture hasn't made us safer" whining (he's twisting himself into yet another semantic pretzel now that Kaddafi has surrendered his WMD), Dean will be lucky if he wins Minnesota in 2004, much less a single Southern state. (Including Florida.)

The GOP couldn't hope for a better gift than Howard Dean's nomination. Here's hoping.

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