Alex's Outlook

Sunday, January 25, 2004

Predictions for the New Hampshire catfight (Jan. 27)

Kerry's going to win. Howie's going to come in second, with a possible very close third (or even upset second) by Edwards. I have written Clark off for the second time. As I said below, Kerry's comeback from the grave was a major setback for Clark. I think it hurt Clark more than it hurt Dean, actually. Edwards' strong second in Iowa also damaged Clark pretty badly.

Dean shot himself in each foot with the "YEARGH," but he's not finished yet. If he pulls a second place finish, NH will have helped him. A lot. He has plenty of cash in the bank, so he is far from finished. The two Johns are both desperate for cash even after post-Iowa windfalls, and they have no organization in the Feb. 3 states. Then again, organization didn't do Gephardt much good in Iowa.

Kerry and Dean are the frontrunners. Neither will fare well against Bush. If Edwards does well in NH, he will have SC locked up. He's the biggest threat to Bush, just because he has a remote chance at fracturing the South.

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