Alex's Outlook

Wednesday, February 18, 2004

...or maybe Kerry's lead hasn't evaporated. Or who knows? 

I am not sure I have ever seen this before:

  • Gallup, which typically favors Bush, favors Kerry by double digits (12 points).
  • A University of Connecticut poll shows a dead heat (Kerry 46-45 +/- 3).
  • And of course, as cited below, Rasmussen reported a 48-43 Bush lead.

    I'm not sure what's going on. Where did this ridiculous disparity come from?

    Even if Gallup's right, it is only relevant insofar as it gives Kerry more steam for the nomination fight (which is good). Kerry's rise has been due to the enormous positive press coverage received by Democrats generally during the nomination process, their relentless Bush-bashing and the baffling silence of the White House. The more the Dems' vituperations pass unanswered, the more they will sink in and the harder they will be able to dislodge by 30-second TV ads. I daresay Rove is waiting for a single candidate to appear before he begins counterattacking, because I can't think of any other reason to keep taking so much flak.

    Bush might as well stop staying "above politics" and at least defend his policies on their philosophical merits, even if he can't attack a particular opponent. Playing "Mr. Presidential" might have worked for Bush if he hadn't spent the post-Saddam windfall throwing various bones to interest groups (*cough* Medicare bill *cough* Mexican amnesty *cough*) that have only backfired since.

    UPDATE:Pollster John Zogby, whose polls have historically been among the most favorable to Democrats, has Kerry leading Bush 46-45 in blue states - and Bush leading 51-39 in red states. Looks like the Gallup poll is crap.


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