Alex's Outlook

Wednesday, February 04, 2004

The Real Deal Express Rolls On

Not a good day for Edwards. Edwards smoked Kerry in South Carolina, which he simply had to do. But he could have knocked Clark out of contention by winning Oklahoma and monopolizing the anti-Kerry vote. As is, Clark won Oklahoma by a fraction of a percent, keeping his campaign on life support. He's still not going anywhere.

Unless he had won Oklahoma and SC himself, Kerry couldn't have asked for a better set of results. I almost think splitting Oklahoma and SC between Clark and Edwards was a better result than Kerry carrying Oklahoma himself. Clark and Edwards now have to compete for the South, while Kerry gets to monopolize the rest of the country. Dean is marshaling his resources for a last stand in Washington and Michigan, or maybe the twin pillars of the liberal Democrats - New York and California on March 2. Those are big markets, though, for which Dean will need a lot of money. I don't know what the CA and NY polls show for Dean, but I think he'd be better off ducking Michigan and Washington state to minimize the hype those wins will create for Kerry. Then he could make a last stand in Wisconsin a week later, or go all-in on March 2 in California and New York. Either way is a very long shot for Dean, and Kerry is almost certain to win the nomination, with Edwards as his veep.

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