Alex's Outlook

Tuesday, February 17, 2004

The scandal that isn't--yet 

First all the rumors, then Alexandra Polier's father calling Kerry a sleazeball. Then a couple days' hiatus...her parents declare that they will vote Kerry for president. Alexandra, still in east Africa, says it's all a lie. Do I smell smoke?

I remain firm in my conviction that Kerry's lead is a bubble waiting to be pricked, once it's too late to change horses for November. The Yale Fair model is reassuring - it's one of the most accurate presidential predictors around, and it predicts that Bush will gain 58.7% of the two-party vote. I'm thinking 54-55 percent myself, but either way it's a blowout. Kerry couldn't win a single Southern state including Florida even if Robert E. Lee were his running mate, and his pathetic defense/values record will torpedo him in the Midwest and Rocky states too. I'm also eagerly anticipating Kerry's negative coattails in the five open southern Senate races.

According to Bob Novak's subscription-only Novak Report, "many Republican strategists think Kerry is highly vulnerable--more so than Dean."

The Polier situation would be great icing on the cake, but I don't think it will be necessary. Kerry's Northeastern hauteur, uberliberalism and total lack of principle will get buried by Bush's $100 million-plus bankroll. I can't wait.


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