Alex's Outlook

Wednesday, March 31, 2004

The Bush bounce 

A brand new poll has Bush leading Kerry 51-47 nationally after his first barrage of ads attacking Kerry. If Kerry's lead imploded that easily, Kerry is even weaker than I thought. Some people might say that the drop is illusory because Kerry hasn't advertised yet, but Kerry has still gotten tons of favorable press coverage which amounts to the same thing.

In the swing states that Bush targeted, the drop is much more marked. Kerry now trails Bush by 6 points in Pennsylvania. Nevada went from a dead heat to an 11-point Bush lead; Arizona went from a 2-point Kerry lead to a 9 point Bush lead. New Hampshire is well into Bush territory again, after Kerry's big primary bump. Florida and Ohio are both still leaning slightly Kerry, however...


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