Alex's Outlook

Tuesday, April 20, 2004

Liberals' fear of Toomey grows 

Markos Zuniga, aka kos, is not exactly a conservative. In fact, he's a very successful, very liberal blogger. I find his ideology repugnant, but his site is still a good pulse of the liberal base. It should be required reading for anybody, liberal or otherwise, who has a more than passing interest in politics.

Today he made an interesting post on the Specter-Toomey duel:

PA-Sen: Toomey closing in on Specter
by kos
Tue Apr 20th, 2004 at 11:47:44 EDT

Quinnipiac Univ. 4/12-18. MoE 4.7%. (April 7 results)
Specter (R) 49 (52)
Toomey (R) 44 (37)
Toomey is well funded for the stretch run, has the support of every big-name conservative and the election is only a week away. Odds are he'll win this one. He's got the strong support of the who's who of the conservative movement -- Forbes, Bork, Norquist, Dobbs, and so on. Toomey's people are motivated to oust a senator they consider a RINO -- Republican in name only.
CW was that Toomey would be an easier candidate to beat in the general, but I'm not so sure. He's run a great, fearless campaign. He's firing on all cylinders. And any candidate ousting a sitting Senator will be a force to be reckoned with.

At this point, I'm actually hoping for a Specter victory. Specter will be broke and bloodied. He's been so demonized by Toomey (who morphed Specter into Kerry in an ad) that it may hurt Specter's ability to get Republican votes and money in the general. (The Q poll has the numbers -- only 57 percent of Toomey voters would vote for Specter in the general if their guy loses.)

Toomey is much further right than the PA electorate, but ideology oftentimes takes a back seat to well run campaigns and a good story. Toomey has both. And our candidate, Hoeffel, still hasn't made much of a mark in the state. A March 15 Q-poll noted that 70 percent of PA voters hadn't "heard enough" about Hoeffel.

At least the liberals now realize what Santorum, Bush and others don't: that Toomey is a much more formidable general election candidate than any of them previously thought.

Toomey, despite Specter's slander accusing him of allowing dealers to sell drugs and alcohol (to underage people) on a bar that Toomey once operated, is surging. He has the momentum and the passionate supporters. Whether one is a liberal Democrat seeking the most liberal Republican or a conservative who wants to keep Specter's seat in GOP hands, Specter isn't drawing anybody to the polls based on personal or ideological charisma. Toomey is the complete opposite--charismatic, telegenic, young(42; Specter is 74), and very conservative. The future of the conservative movement.

Conservatives have already won a partial victory. This race is going to be either a close Specter win or a Toomey landslide. Either way, a band of fiscal conservatives called the Club for Growth have proven that not even the insular, cozy, RINO-infested Senate is immune to grassroots outrage over GOP spending. Arlen Specter's race is the last stand of fiscally liberal Republicanism, and conservatism's great opportunity to whip the Senate into line and reshape the party according to the limited-government ideals the GOP championed until after the 1996 elections.

The main battle isn't over yet. Toomey still badly needs money. Next Tuesday is Pennsylvania's referendum on conservatism, and Specter has a healthy cash advantage as well as the support of the Republican political establishment. You can donate now to the Toomey campaign online at, or mail a check to:

Toomey For Senate
PO Box 8658
Allentown, PA 18105


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