Alex's Outlook

Tuesday, April 27, 2004

Specter's lead vanishes on election eve


Survey USA:
Specter
48%

Toomey
48%

Undecided 4%
Data Collected
4/23/04 - 4/25/04

Geography
State of Pennsylvania

Sample Population
478 Certain Voters

Margin of Error
4.6%

Toomey's got the momentum, to be sure. Apparently Bush's visit has indicated Specter's weakness, and has failed to mobilize conservative support for Specter.

The race tomorrow really could be a landslide either way, or it could be very close. Toomey's got the Big Mo at this point. Toomey's supporters are much more zealous, so they will get themselves to the polls. Specter, however, has the Republican establishment machine behind him.

Had the race remained in a 48-42 Specter lead, I would have given Toomey slightly weaker odds than Specter. Now, however, I'd have to say Toomey's the favorite. Specter's record simply does not have the purity needed to mobilize primary supporters the same way Toomey will. Specter's supporters are not pissed off the way Toomey's are (i.e. insane GOP spending, plus Specter's carrying water for the tort bar and labor unions). Specter did hit Toomey pretty hard with some ads claiming that Toomey flip-flopped on abortion, but I don't think that'll save Specter's liberal hide.

Toomey's actual campaign has been a disaster. However, this one of those rare campaigns in which personalities and organization are being trumped by ideals and genuine anger at the fiscal chaos perpetrated by the national GOP. I think that this anger will defeat Specter's superior organization.

I'm predicting that Toomey will win, about 53-47.

The liberal blogger kos, who has been watching the race closely (and who believes Specter is less electable than Toomey), also has his money on Toomey. Tradesports, however, has Specter as the 2-1 favorite, which were exactly the odds I bet on with my dad. The new SUSA poll changes the landscape a bit, though.

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